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Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic ForesightFrom Social Technologies
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Thinking about the Future distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. Presented in a highly scannable yet personable style, each guideline includes an explanation and rationale, key steps, a case example, and resources for further study. The 115 guidelines are organized into six sequential categories that mirror the phases of a strategic foresight activity, namely Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. Executives will find both the guidelines and the framework invaluable for understanding what it takes to successfully explore the future, while analysts who actively carry out strategic foresight projects will find the book an indispensable reference that they turn to again and again.
- Sales Rank: #96698 in Books
- Published on: 2007-02-28
- Released on: 2007-02-28
- Number of items: 1
- Binding: Perfect Paperback
- 253 pages
About the Author
Dr. Andy Hines is Assistant Professor and Program Coordinator with the University of Houston Graduate Program in Foresight and is also speaking, workshopping, and consulting through his firm Hinesight. His 20 plus years of professional futurist experience includes a decade s experience working inside first the Kellogg Company and later Dow Chemical, and consulting work with Coates &Jarratt, Inc. and Social Technologies. His books include Teaching about the Future, ConsumerShift: How Changing Values Are Reshaping the Consumer Landscape, Thinking about the Future, 2025: Science and Technology Reshapes US and Global Society, and he recently earned his PhD on The Role of an Organizational Futurist in Integrating Foresight into Organizations.
Excerpt. � Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
There has perhaps never been a time in human history where strategic foresight is more needed. Whether for business, government, education, nonprofits, or even individuals, the ability to--as Richard Slaughter suggests in the preface--"create and sustain a variety of high-quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in useful ways" is at a premium. Yet precious little guidance is available on the best ways to do this. This book is not an explicit methodology text, but rather suggests what executives and analysts should be thinking about and doing when contemplating or performing activities involving strategic foresight. It aims at communicating the collective wisdom of three dozen expert contributors for attaining excellence in strategic foresight. Thus, its primary goal is to provide readers with clear and useful guidance regarding how best to practice strategic foresight.
This guidance is presented in the form of guidelines that represent a distillation of best practice. The presentation style is brief and to the point--designed to provide essential, need-to-know information that can be immediately put into practice. We believe that analysts and organizations that follow these guidelines will be more effective than those that do not.
Many practicing analysts today have little experience or formal training in strategic foresight. This work addresses that gap by cataloging the best guidelines for successfully applying strategic foresight, offered by professionals in the field today. It is intended both for those new to strategic foresight who would benefit from a reference guide, and for more experienced practitioners who will be able to pick out ideas to refine and improve their practices. As organizations become more efficient, payrolls are shrinking and more analysts are being tasked with activities that require strategic foresight. At the same time, analysts find themselves with few places to turn for readily available and applicable guides on how to do it. Providing that guidance is the primary aim of this book.
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A Method for Thinking about the Futures
By Breauxjw
It may not be possible to know the future, but we can certainly prepare for it. This is my understanding of the practice of foresight. Therefore, the question is how do we prepare for the futures? You may note that I used the plural form of future. Futurists understand that there is not one future, but many possible futures and that while we may or may not have control over which future becomes our present, we have a much better chance to arrive at one we prefer if we will but choose and act.
This 2006 book edited by Dr. Andy Hines and Dr. Peter Bishop is about these very ideas. The idea that we cannot know the one future, the idea that we can prepare for many futures, and the idea that we can act to help bring preferred futures into being.
The book is methodological in nature. Meant to be used as a guideline and the introduction section well tells the story of how to use it for Executives, Analysts, and Educators. I use the Thinking about the Future (2007) framework as an executive, student, and futurist for a wide variety of foresight tasks. The framework is easy to understand, organize, and present, and lends itself to team collaborative efforts or solo explorations.
Once past the Preface by Australian futurist Richard Slaughter, the lengthy list of contributors and the basic guidelines (philosophies) of using the framework, the book is organized around the framework method stepwise: Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and perhaps most importantly Acting. What good is a plan for preferred futures if you do not act after all?
Each section is clearly and consistently organized as; a definition of the step, the how to, what benefits to expect, an example, and finally several reference books and papers for further reading.
The book is well indexed, and has many, many citations, but could be improved by the addition of a summary bibliography, especially as it is indicated as a scholastic text.
The bottom line: if you are looking for an organized guideline to practicing foresight for your business, organization, or life, this text will help you organize the world around you into a framework that you can synthesize from, share and update easily to help prepare for the futures! Buy this book, I like and use it.
Further reading could involve the 2012 book by Bishop and Hines, Teaching about the Future which covers not only the Thinking about the Future framework, but also; Understanding the futures, Mapping the domain, and Influencing the futures in a clear methodological context.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
The Best Into to Professional Foresight
By John M. Smart
I've been a foresight professional for ten years now. I have governmental, corporate, academic, and nonprofit clients. Every one of them is interested in better ways to look ahead, and they want simple action steps that can be taken in their organizations, and lots of great strategic and operational examples from real companies of the benefits of foresight and the costs of lack of foresight, to rally the troops.
Thinking About the Future (TATF) delivers on all these counts. It's concise and incisive, and a fantastic read. A number of clients do a quick first read through it in an hour just by reading all the examples (which are broken out throughout the book), and go back later and read the rest.
I have dozens of books on the practice of organizational foresight. Particularly good ones include The Art of the Long View (1996), Learning From the Future (1997), Futuring (2005), Using Trends and Scenarios for Strategy Development (2008), The Business Forecasting Deal (2010), The Signal and the Noise (2012), and Predictive Analytics (2013), to name a few.
TATF is the best current intro to the tools, practices and benefits of foresight in companies and organizations, in my opinion. Andy Hines and Peter Bishop are two of our field's most experienced practitioners and scholars, and the book crowdsources insights from 36 other top practitioners around the world. It uses a foresight model developed by the Association of Professional Futurists ([...] our newest and hardest working professional body, formed in 2002.
The faster the world goes, the more everyone seems to realize the benefit of looking ahead. This book is a great entryway for any organizational member, manager, or leader wanting to know how to look ahead better, who's doing it better than others, and what kind of tools and communities are available to help. Professional foresight is growing up, and this book is our best current intro to that exciting transition.
One caution: The book is formatted to be wider than it is taller (landscape layout). This makes it look like a "coffee table book," designed to be browsed rather than read. Be sure to tell your clients it definitely isn't such a book, it's the real deal, a great set of hard-won foresight methods and strategies intended to be read through in entirety and used, not browsed.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A Perfect Introduction to the Practice of Foresight
By markku wilenius
There are still very few books in the market that gives a concrete helping hand to how to make a practice of foresight approachable to students or professionals alike. This collection of closely knitted articles does it and in a very elegant way. It gives you a step-by-step method whereby you learn what kind of questions are essential to get deeper in the process of building an understanding of the future challenges and opportunities for your organisations. As I teach courses of strategic foresight in the Finnish universities for students coming all over the world, I have found this book immensely valuable as a substantial part of introducing futures thinking and action. I warmly recommend it to anyone interested in the art of foresight.
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